Still Itching to Chase!

For those of us in Alaska, this holiday weekend has been a bummer of sorts...at least, for those of us itching for the chance to see Lady Aurora. The clouds and rain will continue to stick around through the weekend with conditions beginning to improve around mid-day on Monday (Sep 6). Solar activity is projected to pick up a little bit around then too, with a stream of solar material projected to begin heading our way. There may be a chance to see some activity in the early morning hours of Tuesday, but it does not look hopeful for much the rest of the week as clouds and rain return with the next weather system and persist through next weekend. As always, the weather models can be wrong, so it is good to keep an eye on the forecast for any changes.

Excited to Begin the 2021-22 Season!

I don't know how many of you are like me: ready for the night! Here in the Anchorage area, we are starting to get longer nights, albeit slowly, but it is happening! The past couple of weeks have had us socked in with clouds and rain, so tonight is potentially going to be a long one. We have a couple of chances this week for good auroral activity!

Image Source: SWPC

The above image is from the Space Weather Prediction Center's WSA-Enlil model depiction. As you can see, midnight Alaska Daylight Time shows the first coronal mass ejection (CME) impacting Earth; a great time for us to see this happening since it will be dark! You can see the second CME behind it which is projected to impact us around nearly the same time on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Unfortunately for those of is in/around Anchorage, clouds look to be a factor for the arrival of the second CME. Tonight looks to be our best shot to start the season off great!

Again, this is a model depiction, so it must be taken with a grain of salt. However, the data observed so far today appears to be in line with what the WSA-Enlil product is showing. If it holds true, we should be in for a treat tonight! 😊

Version 4 Rolling Strong!

The offseason brought along some much-needed rest and relaxation. It also brought the need to make some changes to the app and make it...better! While the design is much the same as the previous three versions, the navigation tab needed an overhaul. The screen transitions with the old tab were clunky and caused speed issues while using the app. You should notice much more responsiveness when changing screens now!

The move to the latest version also brought about a change in how the app provides insight to the user. Before, the potential to see aurora was designed and tested here in the Anchorage area; specifically, tailored toward 61N latitude. The goal of the app is to be global; meaning, it has to work well everywhere. Thus, the algorithm was completely revamped to account for this. Furthermore, seeing activity with varying degrees of data variables, it was evident that activity can happen in a wide array of scenarios. However, there are a few variables that highlight the greatest chance to see the lights. So, that is where the focus is now. Will it work? I don't know. So far, watching the lights across Canada and the only valid data for the area here in Anchorage this season points to YES!

This newest version also added a goal: the gallery. Aurora activity is truly a thing of beauty and, while my focus is on video, several wonderful photographers capture her in all of her beauty. I wanted a way to showcase that and...now we've got it! Another recent addition (yesterday, in fact) was the WSA-Enlil model graphic for the current hour. Take it with a grain of salt...it is a model after all...but, it is a good visual of what the experts are projecting to happen in the current hour; and, it is great info to have to see if tonight might be a good night!

I hope you enjoy the app! As development continues, it has been amazing to have a chance to put my web programming and education skills to the test! Current thoughts are still lingering about setting up a subscription fee but, truth be told, my payment is in the use and excitement I hear from people using it. Time will tell but I think, for now anyway, Amazing Aurora will continue to be free (with just one little pesky ad to deal with)! If you like what you see and you use the app, feel free to drop in a donation. Every little bit helps offset the costs of keeping the engine purring!

Live Streaming the Chase!

I added a GoPro Hero 9 Black to my arsenal yesterday. I took it out for a test drive last night to check out the video quality at night. I am hoping I have the settings tuned enough to where it's not just a black screen, but we'll see. Thus, I will be chasing with my iPhone 12, iPad mini, all-sky camera, and the GoPro. It is definitely a fun hobby but oh so tiring at the same time!

Interest in Chasing on February 7th

There was an alert from SpaceWeatherLive.com tonight regarding a coronal hole. Apparently, there is an Earth-facing hole projected to increase the solar wind speed and particles headed our way. That said, they are forecasting a Kp value of 4 for February 7th. This means that between the night of the 6th and into the morning of the 7th, we could have some very good activity! We may continue to see some good displays up north and I am really hoping that the lights will be visible then. Depends on where you look for weather. Weather Underground has us partly cloudy and the National Weather Service says we will be mostly cloudy with snow. I guess we will see come Saturday night!

Aurora Bust on January 31, 2021

Well, you can't say we didn't try! We went out to Hatcher Pass last night, about an hour and 15 minutes north of our house, and sat there from 10:00pm until roughly 1:30am this morning. We were very hopeful we would see some activity. The space weather sites were talking about geomagnetic storming, forecasts were showing Kp index values forecast to hit 4 and 5, and Mother Nature gave us a rare, cloud-free night. It seemed like a perfect combination of variables for a great night of watching the northern lights...and, nothing! 

I am trained in terrestrial weather forecasting, so this space stuff is somewhat new to me. I did spend a couple of years analyzing the sun at one of our solar observatories, but we did not really do much with the solar wind, Kp, etc. Thus, I am learning about all of this stuff during this, my first winter in Alaska. I have gathered that solar wind speeds have to be elevated, above 400 km/s, with a density of at least 10 cm3, and a Bz in the negative. Last night, wind speeds were around 325 km/s, density was up just around 10 cm3 or slightly above, and the Bz was bouncing up and down. It wasn't great data, but the hope was there. Some started to see some faint lights after about 3:00am and I watched Facebook, in anticipation, until about 3:30am before I called it quits. It just wasn't meant to be. However, we did get some good out of it! 

I tested the latest iteration of my All-Sky camera. We successfully tested the off-network connection of the camera to my iPhone. This was a critical piece because the webserver for the camera can be utilized to view the latest live photo and make adjustments as necessary. Additionally, we tested that there is enough power from our vehicle's USB ports to power the camera while it sits on top of the roof. Thus, we were able to keep an eye on the sky from the warmth of the car and adjust exposure, gain, and other variables to see what worked best. In the end, it was a good trial run, even if Lady Aurora refused to put on a show!

We may head out again tonight, but I am going to keep an eye on the cloud conditions. We have a pretty mature low-pressure system and ridge battling it out just over far western Alaska, so I am crossing my fingers that Mother Nature gives us one more shot at seeing some good activity from Lady Aurora this week. We'll see!